[선물] 인플레이션과 주가... / Inflation & Stock Prices...
선물개미
0
1973
2021.05.13 09:39
S&P 500 Index
Moon_Rocket_Capital
A lot is being made of the fears of rising inflation at the moment. Last year, a huge amount of additional M1 money was added into the US economy - and was immediately refuted by pearl-clutching and gasps from the cheap seats. This increase in monetary supply almost certainly gave a kickstart to the stock market - which has been rallying not stop since.
THEY CREATED THE INFLATION ISSUE!
Yes, they did. No one in the decision making process would argue that their intent was anything other than create inflation . Why? Because modern economies are driven on inflation . The risks of deflation far - far - outweigh the risks of controlled inflation . The economic landscape was already on edge leading into 2020; with some of the biggest sectors, such as retail, experiencing generational shifts from their customers. Things were already slowing. And then we added a pandemic into the mix.
If you had the money, April 2020 was a great time to buy 'stuff'. Retailers were practically throwing products out the doors to try and keep some sales coming through the registers. The only real exclusion from that was food & general needs; which were being horded like COVID created zombies. Entertainment and Real Estate also took big hits. As Work-From-Home started to pick up, the oil & gas industry ground to a halt (though, lay offs had already started in 2019...).
People weren't spending money. A LOT of people had lost their jobs; but worse - people who still had income just were not spending it. We've seen this movie before: The Great Depression. There are 2 generally considered useful ways to kickstart an economy:
In a situation where you are trying to keep people distanced, to reduce a pandemic, you can't really get a large portion of the population out into the public building things. So infrastructure spend needs to wait. So cold hard cash is the answer. The lowest wealth bracket don't stockpile their money for a rainy day. They use it to buy things they need, and maybe - just maybe - if you give them enough money, they might even upgrade something they own (assuming all their other costs are accounted for).
But in this political environment you can't just go around giving poor people money. So instead, everyone gets a kickback. And hopefully some of them put that money back into the economy - where it is needed the most...
BUT NOT EVERYONE SPENT IN USEFUL WAYS...
Chances are, if you are reading this, you are exactly who I am referring to here. Economies are built of the purchasing of new 'stuff' which required someone to put time into the creation of said stuff. We add up off the value that has been created, and arbitrarily decide how healthy an economy is based on that figure. What isn't included in that? Buying Stocks!
Putting your stimulus into $GME did nothing for the economy. Walking into a Gamestop and spending that money on new games would have been much better. And they would have retained their value better too...
Of course, there is nothing wrong with using every opportunity possible to improve your cash flows. But stock trading is a second hand market. None of this helps the economy - outside of the taxes that get paid on the profits.
SO WHY IS THE INFLATION NUMBER SUDDENLY JUMPING?
Things are starting to open back up. There are things to do, and there are a lot of people who either didn't spend their stimulus money - or were fortunate enough to have kept their income streams alive throughout the pandemic. There is a lot of money floating around and FINALLY things are opening up. People are spending. Exactly what should have been happening over the last 12 months.
So while the jump in inflation numbers is something we should absolutely be paying attention to; it needs to be considered amongst a longer timeline of underperforming figures. A few quarters of higher than normal inflation before it stabilizes will more likely than not help the economy. Because when inflation increases, that means there is demand for products. And when regulated effectively - that can only be a good thing.
The moral of this story is: Go buy something new, and preferably something local.
THEY CREATED THE INFLATION ISSUE!
Yes, they did. No one in the decision making process would argue that their intent was anything other than create inflation . Why? Because modern economies are driven on inflation . The risks of deflation far - far - outweigh the risks of controlled inflation . The economic landscape was already on edge leading into 2020; with some of the biggest sectors, such as retail, experiencing generational shifts from their customers. Things were already slowing. And then we added a pandemic into the mix.
If you had the money, April 2020 was a great time to buy 'stuff'. Retailers were practically throwing products out the doors to try and keep some sales coming through the registers. The only real exclusion from that was food & general needs; which were being horded like COVID created zombies. Entertainment and Real Estate also took big hits. As Work-From-Home started to pick up, the oil & gas industry ground to a halt (though, lay offs had already started in 2019...).
People weren't spending money. A LOT of people had lost their jobs; but worse - people who still had income just were not spending it. We've seen this movie before: The Great Depression. There are 2 generally considered useful ways to kickstart an economy:
- Give poor people money.
- Build stuff. Lots and lots of stuff.
In a situation where you are trying to keep people distanced, to reduce a pandemic, you can't really get a large portion of the population out into the public building things. So infrastructure spend needs to wait. So cold hard cash is the answer. The lowest wealth bracket don't stockpile their money for a rainy day. They use it to buy things they need, and maybe - just maybe - if you give them enough money, they might even upgrade something they own (assuming all their other costs are accounted for).
But in this political environment you can't just go around giving poor people money. So instead, everyone gets a kickback. And hopefully some of them put that money back into the economy - where it is needed the most...
BUT NOT EVERYONE SPENT IN USEFUL WAYS...
Chances are, if you are reading this, you are exactly who I am referring to here. Economies are built of the purchasing of new 'stuff' which required someone to put time into the creation of said stuff. We add up off the value that has been created, and arbitrarily decide how healthy an economy is based on that figure. What isn't included in that? Buying Stocks!
Putting your stimulus into $GME did nothing for the economy. Walking into a Gamestop and spending that money on new games would have been much better. And they would have retained their value better too...
Of course, there is nothing wrong with using every opportunity possible to improve your cash flows. But stock trading is a second hand market. None of this helps the economy - outside of the taxes that get paid on the profits.
SO WHY IS THE INFLATION NUMBER SUDDENLY JUMPING?
Things are starting to open back up. There are things to do, and there are a lot of people who either didn't spend their stimulus money - or were fortunate enough to have kept their income streams alive throughout the pandemic. There is a lot of money floating around and FINALLY things are opening up. People are spending. Exactly what should have been happening over the last 12 months.
So while the jump in inflation numbers is something we should absolutely be paying attention to; it needs to be considered amongst a longer timeline of underperforming figures. A few quarters of higher than normal inflation before it stabilizes will more likely than not help the economy. Because when inflation increases, that means there is demand for products. And when regulated effectively - that can only be a good thing.
The moral of this story is: Go buy something new, and preferably something local.
번역:
S&P 500 지수
문_로켓_캐피탈
현재 상승하는 인플레이션에 대한 우려 때문에 많은 것이 이루어지고 있다. 작년, 미국 경제에 엄청난 양의 M1 자금이 추가되었고 - 진주를 움켜쥐고 싼 좌석에서 헐떡거림으로써 즉각 반박되었다. 이러한 통화 공급의 증가는 거의 확실히 주식 시장에 활력을 불어넣었다 - 그 이후로 멈추지 않고 상승하고 있다.
그들은 인플레이션 문제를 만들었다!
네, 그들은 그렇게 했습니다. 의사결정 과정에서 아무도 그들의 의도가 인플레이션을 일으키는 것 외에 다른 것이라고 주장하지 않을 것이다. 왜 그럴까? 왜냐하면 현대 경제는 인플레이션을 기반으로 하기 때문이다. 디플레이션의 위험은 통제된 인플레이션의 위험을 훨씬 능가한다. 소매업과 같은 가장 큰 업종 중 일부는 고객들로부터 세대교체를 경험하면서, 경제상황은 이미 2020년으로 접어들고 있었다. 상황은 이미 느려지고 있었다. 그리고 그 혼합물에 대유행병을 추가했습니다.
만약 당신이 그 돈을 가지고 있다면, 2020년 4월은 '물건'을 사기 좋은 시기였다. 소매상들은 실질적으로 상품을 내던져 일부 매출이 등록부를 통해 들어오도록 시도하고 있었다. 그것에서 유일한 진짜 배제는 음식과 일반적인 필요였다; 그것은 COVID가 좀비를 만든 것처럼 다루어지고 있었다. 엔터테인먼트와 부동산도 큰 인기를 끌었다. '워라-홈'이 살아나면서 정유·가스 산업은 중단 국면에 접어들었다(하지만, 2019년부터는 이미 정리해고가 시작됐었다...).
사람들은 돈을 쓰지 않았다. 많은 사람들이 일자리를 잃었지만, 더 나쁜 것은, 여전히 수입이 있는 사람들은 그것을 쓰지 않고 있었다. 우리는 이 영화를 본 적이 있다. 대공황. 일반적으로 경제를 활성화하는 두 가지 유용한 방법이 있습니다.
가난한 사람들에게 돈을 주세요.
물건을 만들다. 아주 많은 것들이요.
사람들을 멀리하고 전염병을 줄이기 위해, 인구의 많은 부분을 공공 건물로 내보내는 것은 불가능합니다. 따라서 인프라 지출은 기다려야 합니다. 그래서 냉혹한 현금이 해답이다. 최하위 계층은 비 오는 날을 위해 돈을 비축하지 않는다. 그들은 그것을 필요한 물건을 사기 위해 사용합니다. 그리고 아마도, 만약 여러분이 그들에게 충분한 돈을 준다면, 그들은 심지어 그들이 소유한 무언가를 업그레이드 할 수도 있습니다. (다른 모든 비용이 고려된다고 가정했을 때).
하지만 이런 정치 환경에서는 가난한 사람들에게 돈을 주면서 돌아다닐 수 없습니다. 그래서 대신, 모든 사람들은 리베이트를 받습니다. 그리고 바라건대 그들 중 일부는 그 돈을 가장 필요로 하는 경제에 다시 투자했다.
하지만 모두가 유용한 방법으로 소비한 것은 아닙니다...
아마, 만약 여러분이 이 글을 읽고 있다면, 여러분은 제가 여기서 언급하고 있는 바로 그 사람입니다. 경제는 누군가가 말하는 것을 창조하는데 시간을 들여야 했던 새로운 '물건'의 구매로 만들어진다. 우리는 창출된 가치를 합산하고, 그 수치를 바탕으로 경제가 얼마나 건강한지를 자의적으로 판단합니다. 거기에 포함되지 않은 것은 무엇입니까? 주식 매입!
경기부양책을 $GME에 넣는 것은 경제에 아무런 도움이 되지 않았다. 게임스톱에 들어가서 그 돈을 새 게임에 쓰는 것이 훨씬 더 좋았을 것이다. 그리고 그들의 가치 또한 더 잘 유지되었을 것이다.
물론, 현금흐름을 개선하기 위해 가능한 모든 기회를 이용하는 것은 잘못된 것이 아닙니다. 그러나 주식 거래는 중고 시장이다. 이 중 어느 것도 경제에 도움이 되지 않는다. - 이윤에 따라 지불되는 세금 외에.
그렇다면 왜 갑자기 인플레이션 숫자가 급증하는가?
상황이 다시 열리기 시작하고 있다. 해야 할 일도 있고, 부양비를 쓰지 않았거나, 아니면 다행스럽게도 대유행 기간 내내 소득 흐름을 유지한 사람들도 많다. 많은 돈이 떠돌고 마침내 모든 것이 열리고 있다. 사람들이 소비를 하고 있다. 정확히 지난 12개월 동안 일어났어야 했던 일이었습니다.
따라서 인플레이션 숫자의 증가는 우리가 절대적으로 주목해야 하는 것이지만, 그것은 더 긴 시간대의 저조한 수치들 사이에서 고려되어야 할 필요가 있다. 안정되기 전에 정상 인플레이션보다 4분의 1이 더 높은 인플레이션이 경제에 도움이 되지 않을 가능성이 더 높다. 왜냐하면 인플레이션이 증가할 때, 그것은 제품에 대한 수요가 있다는 것을 의미하기 때문이다. 그리고 효과적으로 규제될 때 - 그것은 좋은 것일 수 밖에 없다.
이 이야기의 교훈은 다음과 같습니다. 새로운 것을 사세요. 가능하면 지역적인 것을 사세요.
원문링크: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/AjSNdj3C-Inflation-Stock-Prices/
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