[FX] GBP USD - 기본 드라이버 / GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS

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[FX] GBP USD - 기본 드라이버 / GBP USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS

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British Pound / U.S. Dollar

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GBP

FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH

1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the BOE

The Sep policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this of course falls in line with our bullish bias for the Pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However, it’s important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that they expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don’t come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened, the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain. A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from August which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates in Q1, we do think the over optimistic moves in money markets poses short-term headwinds.

2. The country’s economic developments

The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open up faster and sooner than peers & provided a favourable environment for Sterling and the strength of the economic recovery and GDP upgrades from the BOE and IMF meant growth differentials favoured GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably priced, and the recent slowdown in activity data that suggests peak growth has been reached could mean an uphill push for GBP to see the same size of outperformance we saw earlier. With our above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to downside surprises than was the case a few months ago.

3. Political Developments

Even though a Brexit deal was reached at the end of last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge right now it seems like a never ending can kicking could see these issues drag on for a long time. For now, Sterling has looked through all the rigmarole and should continue to do so as long as the cans are kicked down the road.

4. CFTC Analysis

Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -5008 with a net non-commercial position of -218. The Pound pushed higher after last week’s FOMC failed to send jitters across risk assets and after the market got very optimistic about higher interest rates in the UK next year. However, as we noted above, we are cautious of recent money market pricing. Another factor to consider in the week ahead is the flurry of reports over the weekend of the current energy hick ups facing the UK, with some media outlets reporting massive fuel shortages which has sparked a frenzy of panic buying and possibly creating a much bigger issue than there was originally. Even though the government has assured that there is enough fuel and currently no crisis, we do want to keep the risks of some possible negative sentiment for GBP in line with this in mind.

USD

FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: NEUTRAL

1. The global risk outlook.

Global economic data continues to surprise lower and should continue to struggle to surprise to the upside after the pandemic rebound. As the USD usually moves inversely to global growth that should be supportive for the USD as long as the global growth data moves lower.

2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the FED

More hawkish than was expected is a good way to sum up last week’s meeting. The FOMC gave the go ahead for market expectations of a November tapering announcement by saying that if progress on the economic goals continues as expected they would deem their criteria for substantial further progress being met, also saying the statement language was meant to flag that the bar for tapering could be met at the next meeting (Nov). Apart from that, inflation was seen treading above the Fed’s 2% Core PCE target until 2024, which was arguably also more hawkish. On the labour market side, Fed Chair Powell explained that he thought the substantial further progress threshold for the labour market was ‘all but met’, and also explained that it won’t necessarily take a very strong September jobs print for them to start tapering and that just a ‘decent’ print will do. Even though the 2022 just narrowly projected a hike for 2022 and still close to the June median, the rate path was much steeper than markets were anticipating with seven hikes expected over the forecast horizon (from just two previously). All in all, this was more hawkish than expected, but didn’t really see any meaningful follow through in the USD. A faster tapering was a key factor we were watching for an incrementally bullish tilt in the outlook, but at face value markets were surprisingly quick to discount it. The muted reaction
could have been down to positioning with the DXY already close to YTD highs, or it might have been the fact that the Fed isn’t the only game in town right now when it comes to policy normalization (RBNZ, BoE, BoC ). Either way, the muted reaction means we are staying patient with our med-term outlook for the USD right now.

3. Real Yields

Despite recent divergence between the USD and US real yields, we still think further downside in real yields will be a struggle so close to new cycle lows and that the probability is skewed higher given the outlook for growth, inflation and tapering and should be supportive for the USD.

4. Economic Data

Very light economic data in the week ahead with the ISM Mfg PMI being the only highlight. Even though this print is always important, the fact that the Fed has already hinted at a faster taper even without seeing Sep data means there is more downside risks to incoming data compared to upside risks, as upside risks will confirm the Fed’s decision while enough downside surprises might cause some doubts.

4. CFTC Analysis

Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +827 with a net non-commercial position of +25100. For now, with the fundamental outlook still neutral, and with positioning at current levels the incoming data will remain the key driver for the USD’s short-term volatility . With a fairly light economic schedule in the week ahead (apart from ISM Mfg PMI on Friday) we might have a more risk driven Dollar drive this week.




원문링크: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/CC5m2qCa-GBP-USD-FUNDAMENTAL-DRIVERS/

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