[선물] 원래 패자는 잘 안 잡는데 패하면... OOOF! / I don't usually hold losers but whe…
선물개미
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1752
2021.06.18 09:13
CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
MrRenev
Ah what a glorious day for the bears. After the FED meeting 2 days ago gold flash crashed.
The price of gold saw its worst day since 2013. We all know what happened back then.
High inflation and a collapsing civilization doesn't matter if the people with the money
decided everything was just fine. Eventually reality catches up, but that can take time.
I really have become the expert of sucker rallies.
I called this one in an article, just 1 month ago "Gold nonsense copium rally".
I did not know where the top would be exactly, and did not claim I knew,
I lost with my June puts and am holding september expiring ones,
the returns are underwhelming but I did not expect much, was testing out warrants.
More recently when I saw gold violently dip, and retail buying the dip, I knew it was it.
Then the price created a B wave, that was an entry signal.
Maybe better to sell on the B wave rather than while the price is going up...
Not like we are going to run out of fools to buy dips and into B waves.
Originally my target I said was "at least $1800", doesn't sound that ambitious anymore.
But now I think we bobos might get much more than that.
Remember what happened in 2013 AND in 2008:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/5...
Here are a few potential reasons for the crash:
- The FED promising some hikes (by 2023!) convinced nerds with plenty of diplomas but little common sense that "things were going back to normal"
- The coronavirus declining, with vaccinated populations, convinced nerds that have been underperforming indices for decades of "back to normal"
- Justin Trudeau, as judiciously as Gordon Brown, recently sold gold reserves to China as well as mines. Perhaps other countries are selling too?
- Gold bagholders got sick of waiting for the apocalypse that never came, and missing out on S&P 500 95% gains. Regret got too big.
And now gold keeps falling as bagholders that waited so long for nothing see the price come close to their break even.
"Oh no! No way I missed out AND am going to lose money. I am getting out while I am in the green"
Predictable puny hoomans. The US inflation is not going to go Weimar, but rather as I explained before, Romania.
Even if the US goes the Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela way, it will not happen in a few months.
It will probably slowly creep up, with the people in charge making up excuses and claiming inflation is good.
It might spike fast for a short time, but long after they started shooting the currency bazooka.
They can export their inflation as long as there are fools accepting it, and these fools have money to waste.
Gold is not the only thing going down. Really dumb investors in my opinion are buying the USD and selling everything.
"It's ok we are going back to normal". Makes me crack up. The inflation is even going to get worse.
Consumer goods manufacturers have not even raised their prices yet, and they said they soon would.
So this dumb money is betting that in the next 2 years the USD will strengthen?
Or that it won't weaken too much so it's ok to hold some, it's "safe"? Great laughs.
The fundamentals are the same, and selling should just be short term. But how short?
Gold might reverse now! Make a bottom, or v shape. I'm even wondering if I should buy.
If it drops below say $1700 then the dip is more than some very short term panic.
If the price of gold were to drop that low I would be a bear for a while.
Right now... Might be worth a quick buy actually, with a $50 stop. Maybe risky. Crazy.
The price of gold saw its worst day since 2013. We all know what happened back then.
High inflation and a collapsing civilization doesn't matter if the people with the money
decided everything was just fine. Eventually reality catches up, but that can take time.
I really have become the expert of sucker rallies.
I called this one in an article, just 1 month ago "Gold nonsense copium rally".
I did not know where the top would be exactly, and did not claim I knew,
I lost with my June puts and am holding september expiring ones,
the returns are underwhelming but I did not expect much, was testing out warrants.
More recently when I saw gold violently dip, and retail buying the dip, I knew it was it.
Then the price created a B wave, that was an entry signal.
Maybe better to sell on the B wave rather than while the price is going up...
Not like we are going to run out of fools to buy dips and into B waves.
Originally my target I said was "at least $1800", doesn't sound that ambitious anymore.
But now I think we bobos might get much more than that.
Remember what happened in 2013 AND in 2008:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/5...
Here are a few potential reasons for the crash:
- The FED promising some hikes (by 2023!) convinced nerds with plenty of diplomas but little common sense that "things were going back to normal"
- The coronavirus declining, with vaccinated populations, convinced nerds that have been underperforming indices for decades of "back to normal"
- Justin Trudeau, as judiciously as Gordon Brown, recently sold gold reserves to China as well as mines. Perhaps other countries are selling too?
- Gold bagholders got sick of waiting for the apocalypse that never came, and missing out on S&P 500 95% gains. Regret got too big.
And now gold keeps falling as bagholders that waited so long for nothing see the price come close to their break even.
"Oh no! No way I missed out AND am going to lose money. I am getting out while I am in the green"
Predictable puny hoomans. The US inflation is not going to go Weimar, but rather as I explained before, Romania.
Even if the US goes the Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela way, it will not happen in a few months.
It will probably slowly creep up, with the people in charge making up excuses and claiming inflation is good.
It might spike fast for a short time, but long after they started shooting the currency bazooka.
They can export their inflation as long as there are fools accepting it, and these fools have money to waste.
Gold is not the only thing going down. Really dumb investors in my opinion are buying the USD and selling everything.
"It's ok we are going back to normal". Makes me crack up. The inflation is even going to get worse.
Consumer goods manufacturers have not even raised their prices yet, and they said they soon would.
So this dumb money is betting that in the next 2 years the USD will strengthen?
Or that it won't weaken too much so it's ok to hold some, it's "safe"? Great laughs.
The fundamentals are the same, and selling should just be short term. But how short?
Gold might reverse now! Make a bottom, or v shape. I'm even wondering if I should buy.
If it drops below say $1700 then the dip is more than some very short term panic.
If the price of gold were to drop that low I would be a bear for a while.
Right now... Might be worth a quick buy actually, with a $50 stop. Maybe risky. Crazy.
번역:
금상 CFD(US$/OZ)
레네프 씨
곰들에게는 정말 멋진 날이군요. 이틀 전 연방준비제도이사회가 끝난 후 골드 플래시가 추락했다.
금값은 2013년 이후 최악의 날을 기록했다. 우리 모두는 그 당시에 무슨 일이 일어났는지 안다.
높은 인플레이션과 무너지는 문명은 돈이 있는 사람들이 상관없다.
모든 게 괜찮다고 결정했어요 결국 현실은 따라잡지만, 그것은 시간이 걸릴 수 있다.
저는 어리버리 집회 전문가가 되었습니다.
나는 이것을 불과 한 달 전 기사에서 "황금 난센스 코피움 집회"라고 불렀다.
윗부분이 정확히 어디에 있을지는 몰랐고, 안다고 주장하지도 않았습니다.
6월 퍼팅에서 져서 9월 만료를 앞두고 있습니다.
반품이 마음에 안 드는데 별 기대는 안 했어요 영장을 검사하고 있었어요
더 최근에 제가 금값이 심하게 떨어지고 소매가 하락하는 것을 보았을 때, 저는 그게 다라는 것을 알았습니다.
그 후 가격이 B파를 만들었고, 그것은 진입 신호였습니다.
가격이 오르는 것보다 B 웨이브에 파는 게 더 나을지도 몰라...
바보들이 물방울을 사고 B파도에 빠지진 않을 거야.
원래 목표는 "적어도 1800달러"라고 말했지만, 더 이상 그렇게 야심차게 들리지 않습니다.
하지만 지금은 우리 보보스가 그것보다 훨씬 더 많은 것을 얻을 수 있을 것 같아.
2013년과 2008년에 있었던 일을 기억하십시오.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/5...
충돌의 몇 가지 잠재적인 이유는 다음과 같습니다.
- 연준은 (2023년까지) 약간의 인상을 약속하고 있다. 많은 졸업장이 있지만 상식이 거의 없는 불량배들에게 "상황이 정상으로 돌아가고 있다"고 확신시켰다.
- 코로나바이러스는 백신 접종 인구와 함께 감소하여 수십 년 동안 "정상으로 돌아가기" 위해 지수를 저조한 괴짜들을 확신시켰다.
- 고든 브라운처럼 분별력 있는 저스틴 트뤼도는 최근 금 매장량을 광산뿐만 아니라 중국에 팔았다. 아마 다른 나라들도 팔리고 있는 것 같아요?
- 골드백홀더들은 오지 않는 종말론을 기다리다 지겨워했고 S&P 500 95%의 상승률을 놓쳤다. 후회가 너무 커졌어요.
그리고 이제 금은 너무 오랫동안 기다리지 않았던 수하물 주인들이 가격이 그들의 손익분기점에 가까워짐에 따라 계속해서 하락하고 있다.
"이런! 내가 놓쳐서 돈을 잃을 리가 없어. 내가 그린에 있는 동안 나갈 거야."
예측 가능한 보잘것없는 인간들. 미국의 인플레이션은 바이마르가 아니라 내가 전에 설명했듯이 루마니아로 갈 것이다.
미국이 바이마르/짐바브웨/베네수엘라를 떠나더라도 몇 달 안에 그런 일은 일어나지 않을 것이다.
책임자들이 핑계를 대고 인플레이션이 좋다고 주장하면서 아마도 서서히 상승할 것이다.
그것은 짧은 시간 동안 빠르게 치솟을 수도 있지만, 그들이 통화 바주카 촬영을 시작한 지 오래되었다.
그들은 그것을 받아들이는 바보들이 있는 한 그들의 인플레이션을 수출할 수 있고, 이 바보들은 낭비할 돈이 있다.
금만이 하락하는 것은 아니다. 내 생각에는 정말 멍청한 투자자들이 미국 달러를 사고 모든 것을 팔고 있는 것 같아.
"괜찮아 우리는 정상으로 돌아갈 거야." 화가 머리끝까지 치밀어 오른다. 인플레이션은 심지어 더 악화될 것이다.
소비재 제조업체들은 아직 가격도 올리지 않았고, 곧 인상할 것이라고 말했다.
그럼 이 바보 같은 돈은 앞으로 2년 안에 미국 달러화가 강세를 보일 거라고 장담하는 건가요?
아니면 너무 약해지지 않아서 좀 먹어도 괜찮아요, "안전"하다고요? 잘 웃어요.
펀더멘털은 동일하고, 판매는 단기간에 이루어져야 합니다. 하지만 얼마나 짧을까?
금은 이제 역전될지도 몰라! 밑단 또는 V 모양을 만듭니다. 사야 할지 고민도 되네요.
만약 1700달러 이하로 떨어지면, 하락폭은 단기적인 공황 이상이다.
만약 금값이 그렇게 낮게 떨어진다면 나는 당분간 곰이 될 것이다.
지금 당장... 50달러 정도 들렀으면 빨리 사는 게 나을지도 몰라. 위험할 수도 있어요. 미쳤어.
원문링크: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GOLD/5uae5kUw-I-don-t-usually-hold-losers-but-when-I-do-OOOF/
[본문뒤 추가문구] 서학개미 투자포럼 - 해외투자 트렌드의 중심
